KEM-10-3b Public seismic hazard and risk assessment (SHRA) model train Groningen

The goal is the establishment of a public domain modular Groningen Seismic risk modelling instrument including data and software based on and to be compared with the probabilistic seismic hazard and risk model of the Groningen gas field operator NAM, version 5. This project is a continuation of KEM-03b.

The objective is to - based on the results of KEM-03b project and - develop in 2018 a first version of such a public probabilistic seismic HRA-model in order to be able to execute verification tests. Validation of the quality of the developed model output by benchmarking the modelling results generated with those generated by the NAM probabilistic seismic hazard and risk model (version 5) outcomes and making data available for scientifically auditing modelling results.

RESEARCH REQUEST FULL TEXT

The first prototype version of a public probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment tool comparable to NAM probabilistic seismic HRA (PSHRA) model version 5 was delivered in 2018. It was decided to extend the project into 2019 to create a updated and final version comparable to the NAM probabilistic seismic HRA model version 5. This has been achieved and barring acceptable numerical differences, the tool is able to reproduce the NAM PSHRA results exactly.

RESEARCH PROJECT FINAL REPORT

This public Probabilistic Seismic HRA (PSHRA) model Groningen is considered by the KEM scientific expert panel to be an important achievement for authorities in The Netherlands, could be considered to the first tool in the Mining risk Toolbox.
The used data and software itself are available at TNO and can be used for scenario analysis for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate and the State Supervision of Mines.
In 2020 TNO issued a concise report describing the public Probabilistic Seismic HRA-model for Groningen, as well as a report describing the Software design of the model chain platform.

RESEARCH PROJECT EVALUATION

The project results has been reviewed along the way and in the end by KEM scientific experts. The project has been succesfully completed and has resulted - above all expectations - in a much faster tool.
This public Groningen seismic HRA-tool is considered by the KEM scientific expert panel to be an important achievement for authorities in The Netherlands, could be considerd to the first tool in the Mining risk Toolbox.
The KEM scientific experts suggest to tool can be used for policy analysis studies, given it will be maintained keeping up with improvements made in next versions of the Groningen HRA-tool of NAM.